Investigation on the Impact of US Anti-dumping Measures during the “Catfish War” on Vietnamese Pangasius Exports

Abstract:The Vietnamese pangasius industry has faced anti-dumping (AD) measures imposed by the United States of America (USA). This dispute between the USA and Vietnam is known as the “Catfish War”. Based on monthly time series data from January 1999 to December 2011, an econometric approach is considered, in which regression models are taken into account for investigating how the USA AD measures impact on the volume and the value of Vietnam’s pangasius exports. As resulted in the estimation, the paper found that although the anti-dumping taxes imposed on Vietnam pangasius, it is not so seriously problematic for exporters in the long-term. One of the reasons is that Vietnam pangasius exporters are dynamic in developing market diversification by shifting from the USA to the European market.. However, in the short term, the trade dispute between the USA and Vietnam is a warning alarm for Vietnam pangasius exporters. In addition, the paper does not have any evidence to confirm that the upward trend of the real exchange rate between the VND and the USD is causing changes in either the pangasius export volume or the pangasius export value. Also there is no confirmation of a significant relationship between the inflation rate in Vietnam and the export value.