Journal of Economics and Development, Vol. 23 No. 2, pp. 102-115. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-07-2020-0094
Impact of the volatility of resource revenue on non-resource revenue volatility
This paper investigates the effect of the volatility of resource revenue on the volatility of non-resource revenue.
The empirical analysis has utilized an unbalanced panel data set comprising 54 countries over the period 1980–2015. The two-step system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is the main economic approach used to carry out the empirical analysis.
Results show that resource revenue volatility generates lower non-resource revenue volatility only when the share of resource revenue in total public revenue is lower than 18%. Otherwise, higher resource revenue volatility would result in a rise in non-resource revenue volatility.
In light of the adverse effect of volatility of non-resource revenue on public spending, and hence on economic growth and development prospects, countries whose total public revenue is highly dependent on resource revenue should adopt appropriate policies to ensure the rise in non-resource revenue, as well as the stability of the latter.
Economic diversification in resource-rich countries (particularly in developing countries among them) could contribute to reducing the dependence of economies on natural resources, and hence the dependence of public revenue on resource revenue. Therefore, policies in favour of economic diversification would contribute to stabilizing non-resource revenue, which is essential for financing development needs.
To the best of our knowledge, this topic has not been addressed in the literature.
Keywords:Resource revenue volatility, Non-resource revenue volatility, Dependence on resource revenue